鋼廠多檢修減產(chǎn),期鋼飄紅,上漲來襲？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-11-29 18:16
編輯：達(dá)物
來源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}1創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊11月29日消息:【宏觀信息】1.【俄羅斯能源部：12月1日起俄羅斯將取消煉焦煤出口關(guān)稅】據(jù)塔斯社報(bào)道，俄羅斯能源部部長謝爾蓋·齊維列夫（Sergey Tsivilyov）透露，俄羅斯政府將從2024年12月1日起取消煉焦煤的出口關(guān)稅。目前俄羅斯暫停了動力煤出口關(guān)稅，而煉焦煤關(guān)稅則在繼續(xù)執(zhí)行?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：鋼廠開工高位，對焦炭仍有一定需求，但考慮到利潤微薄以及多數(shù)鋼廠焦炭庫存水平高位，對焦炭采購保持謹(jǐn)慎采購態(tài)度，鋼廠控量壓價(jià)意愿仍存。港口方面，港口焦炭現(xiàn)貨震蕩偏弱運(yùn)行，港口交投氛圍略顯冷清，受盤面影響市場報(bào)價(jià)小幅回落。預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)焦炭市場繼續(xù)弱穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。2.廢鋼：目前影響廢鋼走勢的因素有：1、今期螺持紅上漲，鋼坯小幅回暖，提振市場信心；2、當(dāng)前成品需求淡季，鋼企利潤不佳，拉漲的空間亦有限；3、宏觀會議較往年有提前召開，市場有一定預(yù)期；4、商戶出貨意愿不高，鋼企到貨一般，外圍冬儲需求越發(fā)明顯。整體來看，目前期現(xiàn)貨走勢震蕩偏強(qiáng)，提振市場心態(tài)，疊加后續(xù)重要會議的召開，市場預(yù)期仍存。但是考慮到目前仍是淡季，后市走向不明，廢鋼上行空間有限，預(yù)計(jì)短期廢鋼主穩(wěn)個(gè)調(diào)運(yùn)行?！窘阡搹S檢修】： 1.11月18日濟(jì)源鋼鐵一條棒材全連續(xù)生產(chǎn)線檢修日均影響螺紋鋼產(chǎn)量0.24萬噸。2.11月18日華菱湘鋼2座轉(zhuǎn)爐檢修日均影響粗鋼產(chǎn)量約0.66萬噸3.11月21日河南閩源一座1080m高爐同步停產(chǎn)一座120T轉(zhuǎn)爐檢修20天日均影響鐵水產(chǎn)量0.3萬噸，影響總產(chǎn)量6萬噸?！?a target="_blank">市場價(jià)格變化】：
表1 湖南市場建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周華中地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)主流持穩(wěn)，幅度10-30，今長沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3390元/噸較周一漲10，周口安鋼螺紋庫提Φ22mm市價(jià)3240/噸較周一漲30，從上圖可看出市價(jià)本月呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，淡季效應(yīng)現(xiàn)象，從市場端反饋，商家本周出貨受阻，暗降成交依舊不暢，據(jù)創(chuàng)大鋼鐵統(tǒng)計(jì)的長沙十家大戶成交量對比上周平均每日成交量下滑7.1%，華中區(qū)域冬儲時(shí)間一般在12月底，綜合考慮，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)窄幅震蕩，短期成交或難好轉(zhuǎn)?！臼袌鰩齑孀兓浚罕? 長沙建材市場庫存變化匯總（單位：萬噸）目前華中建材庫存處年內(nèi)低位，本周市場庫存出現(xiàn)小幅增加，基本面呈現(xiàn)供需雙弱趨勢，現(xiàn)鋼廠多處于檢修減產(chǎn)，據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)5家建筑鋼廠生產(chǎn)情況，A鋼廠周產(chǎn)量為0萬噸，B鋼廠周產(chǎn)量為0.2萬噸，C鋼廠周產(chǎn)量4.9萬噸，D鋼廠周產(chǎn)量1.5萬噸，E鋼廠周產(chǎn)量在6.2萬噸，建筑鋼廠產(chǎn)能利用率偏低，商家?guī)齑鎵毫Σ淮?，部分資源規(guī)格緊缺，市場暫未考慮冬儲，多以出貨為主，然成交不及預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場庫存仍會增加?！救A中地區(qū)后期預(yù)測】：目前宏觀預(yù)期既無法證實(shí)，也無法證偽。淡季效應(yīng)顯現(xiàn)，商家本周出貨縮量，部分鋼廠短期仍有檢修減產(chǎn)計(jì)劃，然基本面整體數(shù)據(jù)表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期。12月上中旬鋼廠對原料的冬儲補(bǔ)庫將陸續(xù)開啟，利好原料端需求，現(xiàn)鐵礦石表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)于雙焦。綜合考慮，短期建筑鋼材仍有較高上漲概率，但上漲空間估計(jì)有限。
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