供應(yīng)端利潤(rùn)尚存,關(guān)稅問(wèn)題持續(xù)發(fā)酵,旺季鋼價(jià)仍會(huì)上漲？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2025-03-28 22:22
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}v:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}o:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}w:* {behavior:url(#default#VML);}.shape {behavior:url(#default#VML);} table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}11創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊3月28日消息:【原料信息】1.鐵礦：上周全球鐵礦發(fā)運(yùn)再次回升，主要是巴西發(fā)運(yùn)增長(zhǎng)，澳洲及非主流發(fā)運(yùn)也有小幅回升。受前期發(fā)運(yùn)回落影響，港口到港量有所減少，但同時(shí)因疏港出現(xiàn)下降，港口鐵礦庫(kù)存略有增加。本周調(diào)研的169家鋼廠577座高爐的開(kāi)工率為83.36%，較上期增加0.34個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本周關(guān)于粗鋼減產(chǎn)的消息增多，雖有部分鋼企發(fā)布粗鋼減產(chǎn)具體文件，但當(dāng)下長(zhǎng)流程鋼廠利潤(rùn)可觀，生產(chǎn)積極性較高，鐵水處于復(fù)產(chǎn)階段，鋼廠庫(kù)存依然偏低，仍維持按需采購(gòu)節(jié)奏，剛需支撐較強(qiáng)，短期基本面矛盾不突出，礦石估值修復(fù)明顯。2.廢鋼：28日樣本鋼企上個(gè)工作日廢鋼到貨50.74萬(wàn)噸,環(huán)比增加1.78萬(wàn)噸。螺廢價(jià)差756(-9),鐵廢價(jià)差-96(-7)。華東長(zhǎng)流程鋼廠即時(shí)利潤(rùn)82元/噸(-2),短流程全廢鋼冶煉平電利潤(rùn)-103元/噸(0)。整體來(lái)說(shuō)，近期期螺盤(pán)面低位震蕩，廢鋼市場(chǎng)情緒難有提振，貿(mào)易商正常走貨為主，部分地區(qū)到貨偏高的小幅下壓價(jià)格，部分地區(qū)因市場(chǎng)貨源供應(yīng)偏緊，到貨不足的廠家按需小幅提漲。當(dāng)前正材需求偏弱，鋼企盈利空間不佳下多壓價(jià)收貨，但考慮市場(chǎng)資源緊張難改，到貨難有提升，廢鋼價(jià)格難大幅打壓，預(yù)計(jì)短期市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)中窄幅整理運(yùn)行?！句搹S方面】1.3月28日寶武鄂城鋼鐵建筑鋼材出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià):線材3490元/噸,螺紋3270元/噸,盤(pán)螺3490元/噸含稅。2.3月28日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）：現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3500元/噸；上述價(jià)格自2025年3月28日起執(zhí)行。3月28日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）：1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3400元/噸；2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤(pán)螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3500元/噸；3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3600元/噸；上述價(jià)格自2025年3月28日起執(zhí)行。【市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 兩湖地區(qū)市場(chǎng)螺紋的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南市價(jià)先強(qiáng)后強(qiáng)，長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3200元/噸較周一穩(wěn)，武漢武鋼螺紋廠發(fā)3080元/噸較周一穩(wěn)，市場(chǎng)商家多議價(jià)出貨，市場(chǎng)需求較為冷清，下游拿貨以剛需為主，投機(jī)需求也較弱?，F(xiàn)處傳統(tǒng)旺季，市場(chǎng)心態(tài)持穩(wěn)，鋼廠方面，省內(nèi)不少主流鋼廠側(cè)重其他品種鋼，建材產(chǎn)量整體不高，然基本面現(xiàn)仍是供大于需，鋼廠庫(kù)存不高，湖南地區(qū)主流鋼廠基本沒(méi)有廠庫(kù)庫(kù)存，現(xiàn)鋼廠挺價(jià)意愿較強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)主流代理低售意愿不強(qiáng)，原料端尚有支撐，預(yù)計(jì)短期鋼價(jià)下調(diào)空間有限?！臼袌?chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 兩湖地區(qū)建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存25.26萬(wàn)噸；衡陽(yáng)3萬(wàn)噸；婁底4.3萬(wàn)噸；湘潭0.4萬(wàn)噸；懷化1.85萬(wàn)噸；武漢建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存31.16萬(wàn)噸；現(xiàn)市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存未有明顯壘庫(kù)，武漢地區(qū)庫(kù)存還有小幅去化，商家情緒偏樂(lè)觀謹(jǐn)慎，兩湖地區(qū)鋼廠廠庫(kù)較上周微增，目前看旺季需求或不及預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)4月社會(huì)庫(kù)存會(huì)持續(xù)增加?！緝珊貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：海外風(fēng)險(xiǎn)猶存，基本面供需矛盾未擴(kuò)大，期螺窄幅震蕩，市場(chǎng)信心不足，投機(jī)需求減少，情緒以謹(jǐn)慎觀望為主，目前在利潤(rùn)尚可情況下，鋼廠減產(chǎn)可能行不大，4月部分區(qū)域雨水增多，實(shí)際需求或不及預(yù)期，4月底市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存或會(huì)壘庫(kù)，考慮到政策或有發(fā)力，預(yù)計(jì)4月鋼價(jià)先強(qiáng)后弱。免責(zé)聲明：以上內(nèi)容及信息源于公開(kāi)資料。上文所闡述的觀點(diǎn)結(jié)論和建議可供參考，不構(gòu)成所述或期貨品種的買(mǎi)賣(mài)出價(jià)或征價(jià)，在任何情況下，本公司不對(duì)客戶因使用報(bào)告中內(nèi)容所引致的一切損失負(fù)責(zé)任，客戶需自行承擔(dān)全部風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 1備注：數(shù)據(jù)僅供參考，不作為投資依據(jù)。
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