需求邊際改善,廠商推漲,多空交織下鋼價(jià)仍有上行空間？
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2024-09-14 22:08
編輯：達(dá)物
來(lái)源：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)
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table.MsoNormalTable{mso-style-name:普通表格;mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;mso-style-noshow:yes;mso-style-priority:99;mso-style-parent:"";mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt;mso-para-margin:0cm;mso-pagination:widow-orphan;font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;}創(chuàng)大鋼鐵資訊9月14日消息:【宏觀信息】1.據(jù)美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表辦公室發(fā)布的一份聲明，當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間9月13日，美國(guó)拜登政府表示，美國(guó)最終確定對(duì)某些中國(guó)制造的產(chǎn)品提高關(guān)稅。美國(guó)貿(mào)易代表辦公室稱(chēng)，自9月27日起，中國(guó)制造的電動(dòng)汽車(chē)的關(guān)稅稅率將上調(diào)至100%，太陽(yáng)能電池的關(guān)稅稅率將上調(diào)至50%，電動(dòng)汽車(chē)電池、關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)、鋼鐵、鋁、口罩和岸邊集裝箱起重機(jī)的關(guān)稅稅率將上調(diào)至25%，而包括半導(dǎo)體芯片在內(nèi)的其他產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅上調(diào)也將在未來(lái)兩年內(nèi)生效。2.中鋼協(xié)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年9月上旬重點(diǎn)統(tǒng)計(jì)鋼鐵企業(yè)共生產(chǎn)粗鋼1936萬(wàn)噸，平均日產(chǎn)193.6萬(wàn)噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)2.7%；生鐵1783萬(wàn)噸，平均日產(chǎn)178.3萬(wàn)噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)1.6%；鋼材1865萬(wàn)噸，平均日產(chǎn)186.5萬(wàn)噸，日產(chǎn)環(huán)比下降4.6%。據(jù)此估算，本旬全國(guó)日產(chǎn)粗鋼263萬(wàn)噸、環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)2.0%，日產(chǎn)生鐵224萬(wàn)噸、環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)1.2%，日產(chǎn)鋼材378萬(wàn)噸、環(huán)比下降1.4%?！驹闲畔ⅰ?.焦炭：據(jù)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，2024年8月份，全國(guó)焦炭產(chǎn)量4089萬(wàn)噸，同比下降2.1%；1-8月，全國(guó)焦炭產(chǎn)量32478萬(wàn)噸，同比下降0.4%。2.鐵礦石：臨近假期市場(chǎng)活躍度轉(zhuǎn)弱，本周鋼廠補(bǔ)庫(kù)情緒有所上升，總庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)明顯的累庫(kù)趨勢(shì)，礦價(jià)也因?yàn)槭袌?chǎng)整體活躍度的上升表現(xiàn)堅(jiān)挺，短期來(lái)看鋼廠生產(chǎn)節(jié)奏將會(huì)繼續(xù)維持上升趨勢(shì)，對(duì)于原料端來(lái)說(shuō)有了需求支撐，但是從近期的價(jià)格驅(qū)動(dòng)來(lái)看，鋼材和焦炭由于基本面以及企業(yè)調(diào)價(jià)的緣故上漲動(dòng)力偏強(qiáng)，鐵礦石自身缺乏外部因素，被基本面所拖累，價(jià)格驅(qū)動(dòng)相對(duì)偏弱?！句搹S調(diào)價(jià)】：1.9月14日漣鋼建材出廠價(jià)格平穩(wěn)（噸價(jià)，下同）,現(xiàn)HRB400E材質(zhì)Φ18mm螺紋鋼指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3230元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年9月14日起執(zhí)行。2.9月14日湘鋼建材出廠價(jià)格上調(diào)20元（噸價(jià)，下同）,1、HRB400E材質(zhì)18mm螺紋鋼出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3210元/噸,2、HRB400E材質(zhì)8-10mm盤(pán)螺出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3380元/噸,3、HPB300材質(zhì)8-10mm高線出廠指導(dǎo)價(jià)執(zhí)行3430元/噸,上述價(jià)格自2024年9月14日起執(zhí)行?！?a target="_blank">市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變化】： 表1 湖南市場(chǎng)建材的價(jià)格 單位（元/噸）本周湖南現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，漲幅150-180，今長(zhǎng)沙萍鋼螺紋基價(jià)3210元/噸較周一漲180，本周美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降息預(yù)期增強(qiáng)，鋼廠產(chǎn)量偏低加之節(jié)前存在補(bǔ)庫(kù)需求，市價(jià)上漲較快，現(xiàn)隨著假期的到來(lái)，市場(chǎng)節(jié)日氛圍漸濃，成交情況有所放緩。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)今長(zhǎng)沙十家大戶(hù)出貨5480噸，長(zhǎng)沙個(gè)別大戶(hù)成交能有千把噸，部分商家未有出貨，目前省內(nèi)供應(yīng)未有明顯增加，建材庫(kù)存持續(xù)去化，部分品規(guī)出現(xiàn)缺貨現(xiàn)象，對(duì)價(jià)格存在一定支撐，預(yù)計(jì)短期湖南建材市價(jià)較為堅(jiān)挺?！臼袌?chǎng)庫(kù)存變化】：表2 長(zhǎng)沙建材市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存變化匯總（單位：萬(wàn)噸）目前湖南市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)成交較上周明顯增量，受盤(pán)面和需求影響，市場(chǎng)交投氛圍向好，鋼廠庫(kù)存在低位，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存仍在下降，本周長(zhǎng)沙建材社會(huì)庫(kù)存21.89萬(wàn)噸，較上周減少2.47萬(wàn)噸，其中螺紋鋼庫(kù)存17.37萬(wàn)噸，盤(pán)線4.52萬(wàn)噸；衡陽(yáng)2.3萬(wàn)噸，婁底3萬(wàn)噸，懷化0.78萬(wàn)噸，湘潭0.6萬(wàn)噸?，F(xiàn)鋼廠利潤(rùn)有所修復(fù)，但整體產(chǎn)能仍在低位，現(xiàn)處傳統(tǒng)旺季，下游有一定剛需，且十一將近，預(yù)計(jì)短期供需邊際改善?！竞系貐^(qū)后期預(yù)測(cè)】：本周兩湖現(xiàn)貨市價(jià)偏強(qiáng)運(yùn)行，漲幅120-180，省內(nèi)鋼廠繼續(xù)維持不飽和生產(chǎn)，積極推漲指導(dǎo)價(jià)，現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)挺價(jià)情緒較強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)庫(kù)存延續(xù)去化趨勢(shì)，下游需求回升，市場(chǎng)信心增強(qiáng)，商家?guī)齑嫫痛嬖谘a(bǔ)貨需求，考慮到美國(guó)對(duì)華上調(diào)關(guān)稅對(duì)鋼價(jià)影響偏空，預(yù)計(jì)下周鋼價(jià)震蕩偏強(qiáng)，幅度30-60。
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